The AI Conundrum: Navigating the Complex Landscape of Job Displacement and Technological Unemployment

Historical Perspective: Technological Unemployment and the Luddite Movement

Since the AI boom of 2016, the impact of AI on employment has been a contentious topic. While many herald the ‘AI unemployment’ narrative, some experts assert that AI taking over jobs is an impossibility. However, a look into history reveals that technology has indeed replaced human roles. The phenomenon known as ‘technological unemployment,’ unique to capitalism, was first significantly observed during the First Industrial Revolution around 1800 in Britain. The advent of mechanical looms rendered many traditional weavers jobless, leading to the infamous ‘Luddite movement.’ The 20th century saw similar disruptions with the automobile replacing carriage drivers and other now-obsolete professions like telephone operators and typists. The precursor to job displacement is often a decline in employment numbers within a profession.

The Binary Fallacy in AI Employment Debates

A common mistake in discussions about AI and unemployment is binary thinking — questioning if a job will disappear entirely, and feeling reassured if it doesn’t. However, the focus should be on how many jobs within a profession will be reduced. Even if some jobs don’t vanish immediately, their demand may gradually decrease over decades, leading to technological unemployment. A 2013 paper by Karl Benedict Frey and Michael Osborne from Oxford University predicted that 47% of jobs in the U.S. might disappear in 10 to 20 years, sparking a global debate. Critics of this view argue that a job comprises multiple tasks, and IT, AI, or robots often only replace one or two tasks, not the majority. Thus, they believe job displacement won’t be as severe.

The Supermarket Cashier Example: Job Reduction, Not Elimination

For instance, supermarket cashiers, in addition to checking out customers, are responsible for ordering and stocking goods…